PAKISTAN READER

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Pakistan needs a multifaceted approach in Balochistan to counter Iranian influence

In Brief
IRAN-PAK CRISIS UPDATE
Pakistan needs a multifaceted approach in Balochistan to counter Iranian influence
On 22 January, an article in The News International written by written by Jan Achakzai discussed the dubious role played by Iran in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and the ‘balancing act’ that Pakistan must follow to counter Iran’s “shadowy” influence in the region. The official narrative is one of mutual support in tackling terrorism arising out of cross-border militant outfits. However, a deeper analysis paints a complicated picture.  Pakistan and Iran share a long border with Balochistan accounting for approximately 900 kilometres. Iran’s approach to Balochistan has been contradictory: It cracks down heavily on the Baluchi militants in its Sistan-Baluchistan province while allegedly provides financial support and acts as a safe haven for the Baloch militant groups of Balochistan. Some recent attacks in Ketch, Noshki, and Panjgur support the existence of this tacit support provided by Tehran. Some important Baloch militant outfit leaders like Dr. Allah Nazar are suspected to have found safe haven in Iran. The porous border between the two countries has also exacerbated the problem with easy movement of militant groups. The author suggests that openly hostile aggression against a neighbor is “untenable” and Pakistan must create “a nuanced response that effectively neutralizes Iran’s proxy wars and soft power tactics without escalating tensions into open conflict.” For this, he suggests increasing its “strategic presence” in Balochistan, keeping open its diplomatic channels, addressing “rampant smuggling” on the border and bringing on board regional countries against these groups by strengthening regional cooperation. (Jan Achakzai, “Iran’s ‘shadowy’ influence in Balochistan and precarious balancing act for Pakistan,” The News International, 22 January 2024)
 
Iranian attack in Balochistan has benefitted Pakistan
On 22 January an article in The Express Tribune has argued that recent Iranian attack in Pakistan’s Balochistan province followed by Pakistan’s retaliatory attack has proved beneficial for Pakistan on several fronts. First, it has demonstrated that Pakistan will retaliate adequately and swiftly to a provocation even if it is by a friendly country like Iran. Second, it has delivered a strong message to its other neighbours like, India, that Pakistan will not tolerate any “misadventure” on the eve of general elections. Third, it has provided the establishment with an opportunity to “restore its public image” amidst its fight with a political Party. (Kamran Yousaf, “Iran attack: blessing in disguise for Pakistan?,” The Express Tribune, 22 January 2024)

NSC ratifies move to de-escalate the situation with Iran
On 19 January, a meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) was convened in light of Iran’s cross-border attack in the country. The committee which is the country’s top body dealing with security and foreign policy, ratified “the move towards reducing tensions between Pakistan and Iran” and emphasized “a commitment to addressing mutual security concerns.” The meeting was attended by caretaker ministers of defence, foreign affairs, finance, and information. Other participants included the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and the chiefs of the Army, Navy, and Air Staff, and the heads of intelligence agencies.The meeting was chaired by Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar.
A statement issued by the prime minister’s office after the meeting stated that “The forum (NSC) expressed that Iran is a neighbourly and brotherly Muslim country, and existing multiple communication channels between the two countries should be mutually utilised to address each other’s security concerns in the larger interest of regional peace and stability.” The forum reviewed the security situation at the border and the country’s preparedness in dealing any such violations of its sovereignty. The committee also reiterated its right to retaliate with “the state’s full force,” if required. The call for de-escalation and emphasis on mutual cooperation is a dramatic shift from calls for retaliation and unilateral responses to security threats arising from cross-border terrorism. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Pakistan resolves to lower tensions with Iran,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
Iran and Pakistan continue to trade through the border despite tensions
On 20 January, Dawn reported that despite the ongoing tension between Iran and Pakistan, trade between the two countries continued as usual. Both countries have kept their borders open despite accusing each other of violating their respective airspace and sovereignty. Makran Commissioner Saeed Ahmed Umrani stated that “Trade activities are continuing along the border towns including Taftan, Gwadar, Kech, Panjgur, and Washuk,” and asserted that no complaints have been received regarding any closure from the five bordering districts. The Pakistan Customs authorities in Taftan also informed that their offices remained open on the Taftan border and trade continued. The deputy commissioner of Panjgur, Mumtaz Khetran, further stated that trade activities continued as usual through the Chidgi border with Iran. (Saleem Shahid, “Border trade with Iran remains unaffected,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
Can China play mediator between Iran and Pakistan?
On 20 January, an article in The Express Tribune highlighted the role China can play in easing tensions between Pakistan and Iran amidst the recent crisis. China has also offered to mediate between the two countries in the aftermath of the Iranian attack in Pakistan. In this regard, on 18 January, Beijing’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning had stated that if both parties agreed, China was “willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation.” China shares a deep historical relationship with both countries and “Pakistan and Iran are well-positioned in Beijing’s long-term plans to reshape regional geopolitics in its own interests.”  Pakistan and China have described their relationship as “deeper than oceans, higher than mountains, sweeter than honey, and stronger than steel.” The former also plays an important role in the latter’s Belt and Road Initiative. According to Rand Corporation, China has played a major role in arming Iran, helping to modernize its military hardware. Both countries have also deepened trade ties in recent years. Sameer P. Lalwani, a senior expert on South Asia at the US Institute of Peace (USIP) told AFP that “Beijing possesses some credibility to press the leaderships of both countries for cooler heads to prevail.” However, the article also mentions that Beijing’s recent foray into mediation between Arab states and Israel following Israel-Hamas conflict “has yielded little results.”(“How China could help cool Pakistan-Iran tensions,” The Express Tribune, 20 January 2024)

PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #51
ECP releases final list of candidates for NA
On 21 January, the final list of candidates for the National Assembly (NA) and the four provincial assemblies in the much-anticipated general elections scheduled for 8 February was made public on Form-33 by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). A code of conduct for the competing candidates and political parties has already been released by the ECP, but how strictly it is followed remains to be seen, as the rivalry between the candidates is becoming more and more pronounced every day. A few well-known politicians, like as Asfandyar Wali, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, and former Prime Minister Imran Khan, are not running. Still, there are a handful of seats that are expecting hard and harsh fights. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has fielded its candidates as independents and has given each of them a distinct election sign after being refused an allotment of symbols after their intra-party elections were deemed to violate its constitution and applicable legislation. The PTI-backed Dr Yasmeen Rashid, the former provincial health minister, will be up against former Prime Minister and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif, who has filed from NA-15, Mansehra, and NA-130, Lahore. Both are expected to compete fiercely in their game. According to ECP, the general seats in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures are around 18,000 candidates. Of these 17,816, 6,031 belong to different political parties, and 11,785 are independents. (Mumtaz Alvi, “18,000 to contest for seats of NA, PAs: ECP,” The News International, 22 January 2024)

Imran Khan delivers his speech via an artificial intelligence-recorded voice
On 21 January, Imran Khan, the former prime minister and founding chairman of the PTI, called on all peace activists to support his cause and condemn the nation’s continuing “erosion of democratic values and legal norms.” Imran Khan stressed the need for a democratic government that operates within the bounds of the rule of law and the Constitution in order to address the nation’s internal and external challenges as well as the ongoing economic crisis. He made this point while speaking via an artificial intelligence-recorded voice at the PTI’s first international virtual convention, titled ‘Imran Khan and The World.’ Drawing attention to the fallout from his ouster, Imran denounced a slew of crackdowns on leaders and members of his party, which he said had gotten worse following a “false flag operation” on 9 May 2023. He underlined the “vigorous” efforts being made by his administration to interact with Russia, the states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and China in a revitalized alliance. Along with this, Imran outlined the steps his administration has taken to help Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia develop stronger ties. Imran referred to Israel’s attack on Gaza as genocide against the Palestinian people as he began his speech denouncing it. (“Imran calls for slamming ‘erosion of democratic values’,” The Express Tribune, 22 January 2024)
 
PTI to maintain a sizable presence in the senate until 2027
On 22 January, Dawn reported that with the general elections on 8 February, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), which is going through a difficult period, will to be able to maintain a sizable presence in the Senate till 2027. Conversely, term-by-term data pertaining to senators indicates that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are expected to lose a significant portion of their membership which is 69 per cent and 57 per cent, respectively owing to due date for retirement on 11 March 2024. According to Dawn, the Senate now has 100 members, consisting of four senators from Islamabad and former FATA, and 23 members from each of the four federating divisions. It added that a province is allotted 23 seats, of which 14 are general seats, 4 are reserved for women, 4 are for technocrats, and 1 is for a member of a minority group. But this time, just 96 members will fill the chamber since the former tribal territories’ representation will come to an end due to their merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under the 25^th Constitutional Amendment. This means that 48 new senators will be chosen in the next Senate elections: two from Islamabad, two minority members from Punjab and Sindh, and eleven each from each of the four provinces for general and technocrat seats. (Amir Wasim, “PTI set to retain ‘sizeable presence’ in next Senate,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)

Elections in KP and Balochistan under shadow of militant threats according to Dawn editorial
On 22 January, an editorial by Zia Ur Rehman in Dawn titled “Under militancy’s shadow, political canvassing takes a back seat,” stated that in the lead up to the elections, there is a “disquieting silence” over Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, where the threat of militant groups poses a significant challenge. Recent attacks on candidates in Bajaur and North Waziristan highlight prevalent dangers, and while other provinces are witnessing rallies and canvassing, KP and Balochistan are facing militant Islamic outfits and separatist groups. According to Rehman, the emergence of lesser-known militant groups like Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan and Hafiz Gul Bahadur adds complexity to the security landscape. Security officials have warned of potential threats, with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), emerging as a significant danger. Rehman cited the 2013 elections, one of the “bloodiest in Pakistan’s history,” and the 2018 elections, which were dotted with high-casualty attacks. As security anxieties surge, Rehman points out that political leaders opted for caution, avoiding traditional campaign gatherings. However, despite “whispers of a delay” in the elections going around, Rehman quotes an ECP official, who claimed that “large-scale terrorist attacks targeting political rallies” have never resulted in a postponement of elections. (Zia Ur Rehman, “Under militancy’s shadow, political canvassing takes a back seat,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn describes pre-election situation a “depressing state of affairs”
On 22 January, an editorial in Dawn titled “Subdued polls” put forth the claim that the credibility of Pakistan’s upcoming polls is severely damaged, given the “muted electoral activities” that make it difficult to believe that general elections are around the corner. On the contrary, “Elections in Pakistan have traditionally been a riot of party colours and blaring anthems, raucous rallies and jumbo jalsas.” With only three weeks left, big parties like PML-N and PPP have been conducting lack lustre campaigns, and leaders such as Nawaz Sharif have maintained low profile. The editorial says that the nation is “tuned out of the democratic process,” and attributes it to the state’s ongoing violent crackdown on “one of the country’s most popular parties.” Further, the absence of youth involvement and reduced demand for election paraphernalia contribute to a concerning atmosphere. Social media platforms have become alternative outlets for political expression amid fears of potential restrictions. It is the Election Commission of Pakistan which is responsible for the “depressing state of affairs,” according to the editorial, as it has been unable to carry out its duties. (“Subdued polls,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn on voter behavior in Pakistan
On 21 January, Nadeem F Paracha in an editorial in Dawn titled “Smokers’ corner: The way we vote” stated that the voting landscape in Pakistan reveals a prevalence of pragmatic choices over ideological considerations. Three common theories on voting behavior were included in the editorial- the rational choice theory, issue voting, and the valence issue concept. All three behaviors, as per Faracha, can be witnessed in a single election. As per Paracha’s research, contrary to expectations, the average Pakistani voter, particularly in working and lower-middle-class urban areas and rural regions, tends to prioritize rational and pragmatic candidates. Parties like PML-N and PPP strategically focus on “constituency politics,” emphasizing problem-solving over overarching ideologies. On the other hand, “ideological concerns” are prevalent in urban middle-income groups, who have earlier been concerned about issues like an “Islamic system” and a respectable Pakistani passport. Paracha concludes by saying that the broader trend suggests that pragmatic and rational factors, such as a party’s ability to address local concerns, will shape voter behavior in 2024. (Nadeem F Paracha, “Smokers’ corner: The way we vote,” Dawn, 21 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn on Imran Khan’s “sudden shift” in political engagements
On 21 January, Dawn in an editorial titled “Olive branch?“ examines Imran Khan’s recent overture for dialogue, viewing it as a potential shift from his historically “unyielding stance” against engaging with political rivals. Khan’s political career has, to a large extent, been characterized by his “refusal to engage” with political entities, thus creating a “fragmented political environment.” The editorial says that this change should be welcomed cautiously, as it will only benefit the country if there are democratic underpinnings behind the decision. Khan is also urged to clarify that his call for dialogue is to bridge political gaps and not negotiate with the establishment. By “extending an olive branch” to adversaries, a path to unity can be built within Pakistan’s political system. (“Olive branch?“ Dawn, 21 January 2024)
 
Police case filed after an attack on an PTI-affiliated independent candidate’s office
On 21 January, after an attack on an independent candidate’s office in the city’s Azizabad neighborhood, who is was affiliated with the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), Karachi police filed a case. Falak Almas, the spokesperson for the PTI in Karachi, stated that the incident happened at Arsalan Khalid’s main office. Khalid is a PTI-affiliated candidate standing for NA-248 in the 2018 general elections. PTI party stated, “NA-248 candidate Arsalan Khalid got a head injury and other people present were badly injured and valuables damaged.” Omar Ayub Khan, the secretary general of the PTI, blamed the MQM for the attack as well. He stated, “This cowardly attack proves that MQM has nothing to offer the people of Karachi except violence.” The case was filed under Sections 34 (acts done by several persons in furtherance of common intention), 147 (punishment for rioting), 149 (every member of unlawful assembly guilty of an offense committed in prosecution of common object), 337-A (punishment of shajjah), and 506 (punishment for criminal intimidation), according to the FIR, a copy of which is available with Dawn.com. (Imtiaz Ali, “Police register FIR after PTI-affiliated candidate’s election office attacked in Karachi’s Azizabad,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)
 
PTI candidates have started their electoral campaigns amid tensions
On 22 January, Dawn reported that in Lahore, the independent candidates of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) have finally started their door-to-door campaign despite concerns of being arrested and harassed by the police. Potential candidates for the PTI, along with their families and employees, have been raided and arrested by the police thus far, denying them the ability to conduct their campaigns and host public gatherings even after the symbols were distributed. Many candidates supported by the PTI still lack the guts to start canvassing in their respective districts. On 21 January, a motorcycle rally was held in the NA-128 constituency by Mahmoodur Rasheed, the PP-169 candidate, and Salman Akram Raja, the PTI-backed candidate. PTI employees and young people carried party flags throughout the demonstration. Additionally, many independent candidates who were initially part of the PTI but were not given the ticket are also running as candidates supported by Imran Khan. Social media activists and party leaders are working to identify these candidates to clear up any uncertainty for party voters. Along with the names and emblems of its candidates, the party has also established a “PTI's Elections 2024 portal for candidates.” The party requested that the candidates’ names and party emblems in each constituency should be verified by the voters. (Mansoor Malik, “PTI-backed candidates launch campaign in Lahore amid fear of arrest, harassment,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)
 
Bilawal accuses the previous government of breaking their pledges in an election rally
On 21 January, in an unparalleled period of poverty and unemployment, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari declared that the country could not trust “traditional and old” leaders with its future. Speaking at what political observers called a historic election rally in Lahore, Bilawal promised to create a truth and reconciliation commission and advocated for an end to politics marked by derogatory remarks, decrees, and allegations of treason should the PPP form the next administration. While acknowledging the difficulties the populace is currently facing such as poverty, unemployment, and inflation, Bilawal attacked politicians who had previously held office and charged them with breaking their pledges. As a candidate for Lahore’s NA-127 National Assembly seat, he emphasized a rumored plot that severed the PPP’s links to Punjab and Lahore, impacting the province’s laborers, farmers, young, women, and minorities. Bilawal stated, “By eliminating 17 federal ministries at the Centre, Rs 300 billion will be saved annually, which will be spent on the people. Currently, the elite enjoys subsidies worth Rs 1,500 billion. This will be withdrawn and the money will be spent on the people, workers, farmers and students.” (“Bilawal promises new thinking in politics,” The Express Tribune, 22 January 2024)

PTI and PPP offices attacked in Karachi
On 21 January, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistan Peoples Party( PPP), two significant political parties in Karachi, suffered an electoral setback when they claimed that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) was attacking their offices to disrupt their election activities in the Central District of Karachi. The two parties requested harsh measures against the MQM-P from the Pakistani Election Commission. The PTI filed a complaint, and the Azizabad police filed a case against “unknown persons,” while the PPP named MQM-P employees in an FIR filed at the Hyderi Market police station. The PPP worker stated, “They beat us and forcibly expelled us from the office and threatened us to not open any office in district Central.” (Sumair Abdullah and Imtiaz Ali, “Karachi peace threatened as pre-poll violence begins to creep in,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)

PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #50
Maryam Nawaz Sharif denies an absence of level playing field
On 19 January, PML-N chief organizer Maryam Nawaz Sharif criticized the rival political parties and countered claims of an absence of level playing field in the forthcoming elections. In an election rally speech delivered in Khanewal, she stated “Those who demand a level playing field should come and compete and not run away.” While criticizing PTI leader Imran Khan, who has led charges regarding an absence of level playing field, Ms Sharif argued that her father “had nothing to do with Mr Khan’s current situation.” She accused Mr Khan of goading the youth into attacking “sensitive installations,” which resulted in his incarceration. She also defended her father Nawaz Sharif and the party against accusations of being responsible for most of the economic woes of the country including inflation and cited a large gathering at the rally as evidence of peoples’ support.( Imran Gabol, “Maryam lambasts rivals in fiery Khanewal speech,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
No official announcement on seat-adjustment alliance between PML-N and PPP
On 20 January, Dawn reported on the seat-adjustment alliance between PML-N and the Tareen’s Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) emphasizing that no official announcement has been made by the two parties regarding the same. The alliance is on seven seats of the National Assembly and eleven seats of the Punjab legislature. The alliance looks like a “secret marriage”, “as no side is ready to own it in public, or help out other in its election campaign.” In fact, PML-N candidates continue to campaign for fifteen seats from the seventeen that has been “gifted” to the IPP and where IPP candidates are joint candidates for both parties. (Zulqernain Tahir, “The ‘secret marriage’ between PML-N and IPP,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
ECP issues the code of conduct for 8 February elections
On 19 January, the Election Commission of Pakistan issued the code of conduct for security personnel that are to be deployed for election duty in 8 February Elections. This code is issued under Article 220 of the Constitution and read along with Sections 5 and 233 of the Elections Act, 2017. The code emphasizes that the security personnel conduct themselves within the ambit of law and their duties include ensuring “foolproof security during polls,” remaining neutral and not interfere in the counting process. They must also ensure a “peaceful environment” outside polling booths. They can only intervene in when there is evidence of malpractice by informing the returning officer at the earliest. (“Code of conduct issued for election duty: ECP tells security personnel not to interfere in counting process,” The News International, 20 January 2024)
 
ECP files application requesting LHC’s remarks critiquing it be expunged
On 20 January, The News International reported that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has decided to file “a civil miscellaneous application” in the Lahore High Court against the remarks make by the court in its 17 January order on the election symbol case. The ECP filed the application after convening a hearing and reviewing the court’s 17 January order whether the latter had criticized the Election Commission and a returning officer for “violating the law and not performing their duties accordingly.” The ECP through the application is requesting that the remarks made by the court against the commission be “expunged.” The ECP has also revealed its intention to approach a higher forum in case its application is rejected. (Mumtaz Alvi, “ECP to challenge LHC remarks on poll symbol case, seek removal,” The News International, 20 January 2024)

Minority Alliance Pakistan expresses concerns over neglect of minority rights in political manifestos
On 18 January, the Minority Alliance Pakistan (MAP) voiced apprehensions regarding the systematic neglect of minority rights in the manifestos of major political parties. MAP Chairman Advocate Akmal Bhatti highlighted the tendency of political leaders to engage with minority communities only during election seasons, leaving their concerns unaddressed afterward. The MAP called for attention to electoral reforms, urging political parties to prioritize legislation against hate crimes, discrimination, forced religious conversions, and minor girl marriages. Further, the alliance announced its support for any political party that includes such reforms in its manifesto. (“Activists Concerned Over Neglect Of Minority Rights In Manifestos Of Major Political Parties,” The Friday Times, 19 January 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Caretaker government pursues tax system restructuring amid resistance
On 22 January, Dawn reported that the caretaker government is expediting plans to overhaul the country’s revenue system through an ordinance, aiming to reduce reliance on human discretion and improve the stagnant tax-to-GDP ratio. The restructuring plan for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is likely to be promoted this month, pending approval from the federal cabinet and the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The restructuring faces opposition from tax bureaucracy and political allies resisting historic reforms. Further, the revenue bureaucracy is fearful that these reforms would lead to a loss of “privileges.” Caretaker Finance Minister, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, attributed Pakistan’s tax underperformance to the outdated FBR organizational structure. The strategy involves eliminating inefficiencies, introducing accountability mechanisms, and appointing non-FBR members to oversight boards to combat corruption and underperformance. (Khaleeq Kiani, “FBR’s overhaul to go ahead despite resistance,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)

Short-term inflation in Pakistan continues upward trend
On 19 January, data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics indicated that the short-term inflation in Pakistan increased for the second consecutive week, reaching a year-on-year rise of 44.64 per cent in the week ending on 18 January. This surge, observed since May 2023, is attributed to higher gas prices, electricity tariffs, and essential item costs. The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) recorded a 1.36 per cent week-on-week increase as of 11 January, maintaining a level above 41 per cent for the tenth consecutive week. Gas charges, tomatoes, cigarettes, and other items have seen significant year-on-year price increases, contributing to the overall inflationary trend. (“Short-term inflation remains above 44pc,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
Human Rights Watch reports on Pakistan’s economic crisis and human rights violations in 2023
On 19 January, the Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report, as per which Pakistan faced a severe economic crisis in 2023, with soaring poverty, inflation, and unemployment. The report highlighted the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) austerity measures and subsidy removal on low-income groups. Pakistan was also vulnerable to climate change, experiencing warming rates above the global average. With regard to the media, attacks and government threats reportedly forced scared journalists and civil society groups to resort to self-censorship. Further, the report noted challenges to women’s rights and an increasing violence through the forms of rape, murder, domestic violence, and denial of education. It stated that around 1,000 women in Pakistan are killed every year as part of “honour killings.” There is a lack of awareness regarding mental health in Pakistan, and the report described this as a contributor to the abuse of those with psychosocial disabilities. The HRW emphasized the need for bold approaches to address human rights issues in Asia. The Asia director at HRW, Elaine Pearson, stated that these challenges must be overcome through “bold new appro­aches from rights-respecting governments and democratic institutions.” (Amin Ahmed, “Pakistan faced worst economic crisis in 2023, says Human Rights Watch,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
PROVINCES
Balochistan: Editorial in The Friday Times emphasizes need for justice
On 21 January, Abdul Bais Khan in an editorial in The Friday Times titled “Leaving Balochistan’s Young People Unheard Will Have Dire Consequences“ stated that as Pakistan approaches the elections, it is grappling with a tumultuous political landscape, marked by a “meltdown of state institutions: and a controversial apex court ruling against the PTI. Amid this chaos, Balochistan has witnessed two concurrent protests echoing the grievances of a disaffected youth. The Chaman sit-in, spanning 95 days, protests border restrictions disrupting daily life, while another, sparked by a fake encounter in November, demands justice for the killing of a Baloch man. Khan has argued that these protests reflect “frustration, alienation and resentment against the brutal repression of the state.” The state’s violent response to these peaceful demonstrations reflects “its unwillingness to rethink its strategy of dealing with Balochistan.” In Pakistan, the state’s focus on resource-rich regions has led to “unbridled militarization,” persecution of minorities, and constitutional tampering. The indifference towards enforced disappearances and a “kill-and-dump” policy contrasts sharply with global humanitarian concerns. Despite Balochistan’s natural wealth, it is treated as a “modern-day colony” where people are forced to work tirelessly just to make ends meet. Khan asserted that urgent efforts are needed to address the disaffection in Balochistan, emphasizing empathy, justice, and a re-evaluation of the State-Citizen relationship. (Abdul Bais Khan, “Leaving Balochistan’s Young People Unheard Will Have Dire Consequences,” The Friday Times, 22 January 2024)

PAKISTAN OCCUPIED KASHMIR
Editorial in Dawn on the “chronic” problems of Gilgit-Baltistan
On 20 January, in an editorial in Dawn titled “The crisis in Gilgit-Baltistan,” Sajjad Ahmad analyzed the ongoing protests in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) against the federal government’s decisions, notably the increase in subsidized wheat prices. The demonstrations, initiated by the Awami Action Committee, have endured for four weeks, with Skardu witnessing the longest sit-in. Ahmad highlighted the historical context of subsidies granted to GB in the 1970s and the current demands, including the suspension of the Finance Act 2023, to address the region’s disputed status. The editorial underscored the discontent over power outages, contestation over land and mineral resources, and mistreatment of local leaders, prompting calls for the “dissolution of the present coalition government.” Ahmad urged the federal government to use “dialogue, conciliation, and participatory approach” to resolve the “chronic” issues that GB has been facing. He further stressed that underestimating the decision by protesters to march towards GB on 24 January would force them to “adopt a hard-line position.” (Sajjad Ahmad, “The crisis in Gilgit-Baltistan,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)

SOCIETY
Editorial in The Express Tribune says empowering women leads to “ideal democracy”
On 20 January, in her editorial in The Express Tribune titled “She shapes democracy,” Saira Samo emphasized the importance of women’s “active participation” in political decision-making within a democratic society. She argued that this involvement is not merely a facet of gender equality but an “essential requirement” for a resilient democratic process. Samo examined the underrepresentation of women in political empowerment indices, citing the Global Gender Gap Report 2020, and called for “gender-sensitive governance reforms.” Addressing the challenges faced by women in Pakistan, including extremism and limited opportunities, she advocated for comprehensive strategies encompassing legal safeguards, education, and economic initiatives. Samo concluded by asserting that empowering women is not only a pursuit of justice but a “strategic necessity” for sustainable national development. (Saira Samo, “She shapes democracy,” The Express Tribune, 20 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn describes corruption as a “tangible barrier to progress”
On 20 January, in an editorial in Dawn titled “Barrier to progress,” Umar Strath described corruption as a recurring theme in discussions on economic stagnation in underdeveloped countries, particularly Pakistan. He criticized politicians for using corruption as a “convenient scapegoat,” diverting attention from accountability and perpetuating a culture of inaction. Strath focused on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a critical case study, revealing a mix of “political patronage” and nepotism contributing to financial losses, such as the PKR 200 billion reported in fiscal year 2022-23. He emphasized the “ethical degradation” accompanying corrupt practices, highlighting the systemic downfall of SOEs. Strath contended that corruption is not merely an issue but a “central barrier to progress” in Pakistan, undermining key developmental goals and diverting critical resources from essential public services. (Umar Strath, “Barrier to progress,” Dawn, 20 January 2024)
 
EXTERNAL
Torkham border remains closed amid strained Af-Pak relations
On 22 January, Dawn reported that the Torkham border crossing remained closed for the tenth consecutive day. The closure stemmed from new Pakistani policies requiring passports and visas, triggering reciprocal bans on truckers. Economic losses are estimated at USD 100,000 daily, impacting both nations. Former ambassador Abrar Hussain advocated a broader approach, stating: “Pakistan should not look towards Afghanistan only through the lens of security. We should welcome Afghan traders, investors, business leaders as it will benefit Pakistan.” From Afghanistan, the vice president of the Afghan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Khan Jan Alokozai, said that both countries “equally need” bilateral ties. Business leaders have decried the closures, emphasizing the need for facilitated trade. (Tahir Khan, “Situationer: Border closures, broader implications,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn highlights Pakistan’s foreign policy challenges
On 22 January, in an editorial in Dawn titled “Challenging agenda,” Maleeha Lodhi explained how the recent airstrikes between Pakistan and Iran have added complexity to the country’s foreign policy challenges, exacerbating already uneasy relations. This comes at a time when ties with India remain strained, and relations with Afghanistan under the Taliban have become increasingly “fraught.” As per Lodhi, the next government must address a range of foreign policy issues, including navigating the US-China confrontation, resetting ties with the US, and managing the troubled relationship with India. This necessitates undertaking a “wide-ranging review of the entire gamut of foreign policy.” Additionally, dealing with Afghanistan’s evolving situation and other regional challenges will require strategic thinking and a comprehensive review of foreign policy. In terms of external relations, while Pakistan cannot join any “anti-China coalition,” it will have to reimagine its basis for ties with the US, given that it is Pakistan’s largest export destination and a source of FDI. However, given the strong relations between the US and India, Lodhi stated that the government would have to reconfigure its ties with the US and China while managing the “troubled relationship” with India. Although normalization of ties is not a near-term possibility, tensions in relation should be contained. In the end, Lodhi argued that the only way for Pakistan to have a strong and effective foreign policy is to grow domestically. (Maleeha Lodhi, “Challenging agenda,” Dawn, 22 January 2024)

INDIA VIEW
Maldives’ future will depend on its relationship with India and China
On 22 January, an article in The Express Tribune discussed the recent stand-off relationship between India and Maldives and commented on Maldives’ “India Out” policy. The article argues that though both countries have shared friendly relations since the 1980s, India’s growing presence in Maldives reflected in the number increasing tourists and celebrities has led “to fears of encroachment and a sense of insecurity among the islanders.” Another irritant is the Lakshadweep issue: While India considers it to be an integral part of its territory, Maldives views it as a “disputed area.” The President of Maldives, Mohammad Muizzu had centred his election campaign around “India Out” policy. The recent visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Lakshadweep to promote its tourism in India started a chain reaction with calls to boycott Maldives resonating within India. Maldives’ economy relies heavily on tourism with 2 lakh of its 17.5 lakh tourists annually being Indians. Another issue between the two countries is Maldives’ growing closeness with China, with Muizzu signing twenty agreements “including one to expand China’s port in the Maldives.” Additionally, Maldives has also asked India to withdraw its troops from Maldives. Despite these tensions, both India and Maldives have taken steps to de-escalate the situation. The article argues that this is because “Muizzu may have overplayed his hand during his election campaign by taking a tough anti-India stance, but he now realises the imprudence of alienating India, given the historical ties between the two countries.” The article further argues the despite its relationship with India, Maldives will look to further strengthen ties with China. The trajectory of Maldives’ relationship with these two countries will decide its future. (Abdul Basit &Muhammad Shahzad Akram, “‘India Out’ policy of the Maldives,” The Express Tribune, 22 January 2024)

“Is there any doubt left in what is going on in Pakistan? How can this even be termed as an election?! Mohsin’s Naqvi’s recent acts on Hammad & Farhat Abbas are despicable , even for his own standards. Stay strong Hammad.” - Sayed Z Bukhari “Despite life threats and assisnation attempts Founder Chairman PTI ImranKhanPTI continues his struggle for Pakistan 'Haqeeqi Azaadi'.” -PTI “The forces inimical to Pakistan, are portraying malicious propaganda against Pakistan and its Armed Forces.” - Faridullah Ahmadzai “PTA has blocked the PTIofficial Raabta App. It’s an app for the services awareness and memberships, just imagine the frustration of state towards largest political party of Pakistan.” -Kamran  “It’s not a war between Iran and Pakistan. It’s a war against Baluchistan.” -Raman Nasirizadeh  “Despite the fact that when PTI official was ruling Pakistan, they denied the sufferings of #Balochistan and claimed that the issue of enforced disappearances did not exist. Today, as they are being abducted by the same state, we stand with them.” -Jamal Baloch

“Corruption does not only take the form of bribery.” - An opinion in Dawn, ‘Managing polls’